Baseball Betting Misbeliefs: 5 Usual MLB Betting Mistakes

Baseball betting is not exactly a piece of cake, but with the right advice, you can do great. In this article, we are discussing 5 usual MLB betting mistakes that you should avoid at all costs.

It’s not easy to bet on MLB. It’s not easy to pick winners in the six-month-long regular season of professional baseball.

Major League Baseball teams are so paritized that it can be hard to find good value situations to place bets. Add to that the fact that baseball analysis is a combination of math and reading and you can easily see where the worst sports betting habits are coming from.

I have identified and considered the five most common mistakes in betting that affect MLB sports bettors, especially those who are less familiar with baseball betting. Here is a list of each one, along with an analysis of how you can use the lessons from these errors to create a solid MLB wagering strategy.

So, let’s take baseball betting to the next level and learn how to avoid 5 common mistakes!

Baseball Betting Misbelief #1: Publicly available statistics are sufficient

baseball betting misbeliefs: statistics are sufficient

It’s great to compare starting pitchers, look at bullpens, analyze hitting trends, and get familiar with injury reports. However, stats from Yahoo and ESPN can make you an informed member in the betting public.

Advanced statistics can make your game more than acceptable. These statistics will allow you to see value where others bettors don’t.

It’s better to spend time researching records of umpires at different ballparks. This analysis won’t be found on mainstream sports blogs. That’s a good thing. This means that Joe Blow who has a debit card doesn’t use this stat to drive his wagers.

We know that umps perceive strike zones differently

We can use umpire performance in advance of a game to help us handicap because umpires often call the same games over and over again, sometimes for many years.

Ted Barrett was once the best in the league at calling strikes and balls. He also favors the home team. Between 2005 and 2017, the home team’s winning percentage was 245 to 178 when Barrett was at the plate. This is a significant ROI opportunity, as Barrett has a 58% win ratio.

Two other umpires are available to offer the same opportunity. You can do some research to find out more about them.

Here’s the point:

In baseball betting, common bets can result if you rely on common stats such as batting averages. You won’t win if you follow the strategy of most bettors. You can gain an advantage over other gamblers by looking for advanced stats.

Baseball Betting Misbelief #2: Favorites Are More Likely To Win

baseball betting mistakes: favorites are more likely to win

This is the truth: Favored baseball teams are less likely to win than any other professional sport. Your book will identify a baseball team as your favorite, but it is less likely that they will win than a favorite in the NFL or NHL.

Parity is a topic that sports fans love to talk about. They say there isn’t much difference between the best and worst teams, or that pro sports leagues represent the top 1% of all athletes around the globe. Major League Baseball has the most parity in pro sports. There are 20 percentage points that can separate the win rates for the best and the worst teams in any given season.

The 2018 MLB season revealed that the Milwaukee Brewers, eventual NL Central champion, had the worst record, winning just 58% of their games. With their 39% win rate, the Miami Marlins had the worst regular season record. Only 19% separated the worst and best teams in that season.


At the 30-game mark, no team had a better record that 18-12. This meant that the league’s top teams (and eventual champion) lost about one out of three games. Imagine the NFL’s top team finishing with a record 12-6. This is similar to the 2011 New York Giants freak title season, but occurring every year.

This information can be used to help you place your bets. You should take the “favorite/underdog” concept with a pinch of salt, especially when the odds are tight and the book doesn’t allow for much space between the sides. Only focus on the games that you have found value in through line shopping and research.

Let’s move on to the baseball betting misbelief number 3!

Baseball Betting Misbelief #3: Baseball Bettors Should Bet More Frequently

baseball betting: Baseball Bettors Should Bet More Frequently

The sport and the sport’s schedule don’t affect the amount of your bet.

If a bettor has a low success rate, they won’t be able to increase their success rate by placing only one or two weekly bets. They will still lose money if they start betting on more than three or four games per week. Their bankroll will shrink more quickly if they do this. More frustration comes with losing more money.

Finally, frustrated gamblers give up.

This is because baseball’s schedule has more games and is longer than any other professional sport. Sometimes, baseball teams play six or more games per week. A regular-season baseball season includes 2,430 games. This is twice the number of games in the NBA, and five times as many contests as regular-season pro football.


They can analyze starting pitching statistics, pitcher vs. batter statistics, team and player trends, bullpen statistics, league news and any other advanced statistics that work for them. They don’t just look at the game schedule and decide it’s time for them to place a wager.

In baseball betting, bankroll management is an alternative to gambling too often. It allows you to manage your bankroll and helps you control your play. A strict budget is a must for newcomers. Divide your bankroll by how many bets are you willing to place during the regular season. It’s easy math if you only make one bet per week. One week’s worth of bets equals 26 total bets. You can place 26 bets with a maximum of $38 each on a $1,000 budget.

Baseball Betting Misbelief #4: All Baseball Lines are the Same

baseball betting: All Baseball Lines are the Same

True arbitrage betting opportunities in MLB betting are very rare, but you don’t need to hunt for arbs to reap the benefits of shopping for the best line.

Please Note:

It’s not the most exciting part of the hobby. It is not well-known. It is not a subject that anyone writes about. It’s vital, even though most MLB sportsbooks only mirror what the big Vegas houses offer.

To illustrate the effect of even a slightly higher line, I will use a simple example. Let’s suppose you decide to place a $100 bet on Houston at +125. You hope for a $125 profit. Before you click the “place bet”, you go to the competitor book to see that the Astros line has been moved to +135 by an injury report.


It would be foolish to not take the’stros at +135 number. That’s 9.3% more profit for pressing a different button. What are the most common line changes in baseball?

It is not uncommon to find blogs and websites that track the changes and compare numbers across multiple books. Information about the side bettors is usually available in the same spot as data tracking line changes.

Baseball Betting Misbelief #5: The Trade Deadline is a Front-Office Phenomenon

baseball betting: Trade Deadline is a Front-Office Phenomenon

In baseball betting, baseball nerds like ourselves find late July exciting. Teams make their final major changes for the season as they approach the trade deadline. Although the rosters have been changing for four months now, they will be essentially set after the trade deadline.

The trade deadline has a significant impact on the performance of bettors. The trade deadline is more than a back-room negotiation of salaries. It has real consequences for league outcomes.

Our hobby is not just affected by headline-grabbing trades. Everyone remembers Mark McGwire’s 1997 move to St. Louis at deadline. The 2003 shift of Aramis Ramirez (from Pittsburgh to Chicago) was a career-defining decision for the All Star third baseman. Small changes can make a big difference in wins or losses.


Big moves are not as effective as they seem. A team trying to make a Hail Mary pass would be discarded by me if it had a veteran big-name player. Another side to that coin is that the teams making the least moves often have the greatest success. After a dull trade deadline, the Boston Red Sox and the Houston Astros were both declared world champions.

Baseball Betting Misbeliefs: Conclusion

As mentioned in the beginning of the article, baseball betting is not as easy as we would want it to be. Many people make many mistakes and get frustrated along the way. You can avoid most of the mistakes made by MLB betting professionals if you follow the advice above.

So, if you think baseball betting is for you and you actually want to put the effort and passion it, go for it! And, as always, remember to bet with your head and not over it!

Related Article:

How to Bet on Baseball: 10 Gainful Tips

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