How to Bet on Baseball: 10 Gainful Tips

Want to learn how to bet on baseball? We’re here to provide all the information you need as straight-forward as possible. It is important to know that one of the key elements in baseball betting is controlling your emotions and sticking to the plan.

Other than that, things are truly not that hard to learn! So, with this being said, here’s everything you need to know about betting on baseball.

How to bet on Baseball

Baseball is a moneyline game, unlike basketball and football, which are based on the point spread. Although prop and run line bets are available, they are not as common. This means that the bettors must pick who wins the game and not who covers.

You have two options when betting on the moneyline. One is to choose the favorite, which is the team you expect to win. The other option is to take the underdog. If you bet the favorite, your winnings will be less than what you wager. However, winning an underdog bet will usually return more than your wager.

Although it is less common, you can still bet on the spread. In baseball betting, this is called the run line. It is usually -1.5 runs for your favorite player with different odds.

You can also bet on the total or over/under, which is, like other sports, a wager on how many runs the game will score.

Baseball betting has a unique feature: its lengthy, drawn-out schedule. Wisdomguys have seemingly limitless opportunities to increase their advantage due to the sheer number of games that are played each day (2,430 regular season games in a normal year).

With this being said, let’s move on to learning how to bet on baseball.

How to Bet on Baseball: 10 Simple Tips to Maximize Your Profits When Placing Baseball Bets

We are happy to know that you want to learn how to bet on baseball, and we’re here to provide all the information you need on the matter! Whether you are just getting started or already know a thing or two, we are sure these tips are going to bring value to your baseball betting strategy.

So, here are the 10 pieces of advice that we think you need to know if you want to learn how to bet on baseball:

How to bet on baseball: 1. Avoid big favorites

The oddsmakers are well aware that baseball betting is a recreational activity and they love to pick their favorites. They will profit from public bias and shade lines accordingly. Popular teams such as the Red Sox and Yankees, Cubs, and Dodgers, will remain overpriced. This is because “Average Joes,” who bet baseball, will take on these teams regardless of their odds of winning, whether they are -150, 180 or -200.

Your payout is minimal when favorites win. You get crushed if they lose. The juice isn’t worth the squeeze.

How to bet on baseball: 2.Take Advantage of Plus-Money Underdogs

To make money betting on sports, you must win 52.4% (assuming -110 juice). If MLB bettors don’t favor big favorites and instead take plus-money underdogs (+120, +150, or +170), they can win at a rate of less than 50% while still racking up positive units. You only lose what you have risked when your dog loses. You can still win if your dog wins.

How to bet on baseball: 3.Bet against the Public

We have been arguing for years about the benefits of betting against the public. Because the public often loses, we like to be contrarian. The Average Joe places bets on the basis of his gut instinct. They will always bet on favorite teams, home teams, and teams with stars.

They are also victims of recency bias. They’ll wager on a team that looked great in their last game. They’ll erase it if it looks bad. We can capitalize on public biases and take advantage of artificially high numbers by being contrarians. We also take the books’ side. We all know that the house always wins, and if you want to learn how to bet on baseball, you need to aknowledge this.

How to bet on baseball: 4.Follow the Reverse Line Movement

Baseball is more than just taking plus-money dogs or blindly being contrarian. Professional bettors have a track record of success so you want to be on the right side of every game. Reverse Line Movement (RLM) is a great way to find sharp action. This is when the betting lines move in the opposite direction to the percentages.

Imagine the Cubs opening at -150 to the Brewers (+130). Chicago is receiving 75% moneyline bets. However, you can see that the Cubs drop from -150 and -135, while your Brewers move up from +130 to +115. Why would the books lower the line to give Cubs public bettors a better number Because of the sharp action taken on the Brewers. Even though Milwaukee is getting only 25% of the bets, it moved in its favor.

MLB teams (both favorites and dogs) that have received less than 35% in moneyline bets with RLM at least one cent or more have been 4028-5123 (44%), +6.1 units won.

It gets even better if you increase the RLM to at least 10 cents. Since 2005, a $100 betor would have earned over $8,700.

How to bet on baseball: 5.Concentrate on the Divisional Dogs

The fact that MLB teams in a division often play each other makes it easier for the dog to get to know them and level the playing field. All underdogs in divisional games (think Red Sox against the Yankees) have lost 72.1 units since 2005. Dogs playing outside the division have lost an astonishing 645.7 units.

Baseball betting divisional dogs perform better when we add two additional filters. First, road teams (the public undervalues home-field advantage, creating an inflated value for visitors) and second, high totals (8.5 or greater). It increases the likelihood of more runs being scored. This helps the underdog. Since 2005, this system has yielded an amazing +71.2 units.

How to bet on baseball: 6.Get to know the weather

Although most bets are placed on moneyline, there is still value in totals for baseball betting. Before placing a total bet, you should consider the weather, and specifically the wind. We found that the under is able to win 960-781-89 (55.1%) when the wind blows in at 5 mph and more. This gives us a 117.6 unit win rate and a 6.4% ROI.

Wind can blow in and turn home runs into warning-tracks outs, which benefits unders. It can also blow out and make fly balls homers, which will benefit overs. The over has been 1,174-1,045-125 (52.9%) since 2005 when the wind blows out at 8 mph. This is a 3.6% ROI.

How to bet on baseball: 7.Know the umpires

Although we wouldn’t advise placing a bet solely on the umpire, it’s important to understand who is behind the plate so that bettors can take advantage of pronounced tendencies. Umpires, in the end, are human. Some umpires succumb to pressure and become influenced by the crowd. This is good for home teams.

Some people thrive on the hatred of the crowd and this is a benefit to road teams. Some teams have a narrow strike zone which results in more runs, walks, and runs scored, as well as overs being hit. Some strike zones are large, which can lead to more strikes and batted balls in play. This is a benefit for unders.

Home teams have been 289-193 (60%), +53.3 Units, and 11.1% ROI, respectively, since 2005, when Lance Barksdale was calling strikes and balls.

Dogs have been 248-276 (47.3%) when Joe West is at the plate. However, they have won +47.3 units, which is a 9.4% ROI.

Ron Kulpa, the home-plate ump for unders, has seen them go 254-190-25 (57.2%), +46.75 unit won, and 10% ROI.

How to bet on baseball: 8.Find the best line

New bettors making baseball betting mistakes are those who only make wagers on one site. This is a mistake as it forces bettors into playing whatever number they offer. We recommend that you open multiple accounts at different books to ensure that you have the opportunity to shop for the best line.

Let’s say, for example, you wish to place a bet on the Kansas City Royals. DraftKings has Royals +130 and BetMGM has +135. You just get an extra 5 cents by having access to more books. Although it may seem small, this can have a significant impact on your long-term earnings.

How to bet on baseball: 9.Accept Volume Betting

Being a long-term successful MLB bettor requires discipline and keeping your plays to the most important games. Baseball is one of few sports where you can make more money by betting on volume.

A baseball betting system with a ROI of 2% will give you an opportunity to make 486 bets in MLB and 51 in NFL. (We took 20% of each team’s regular-season games, 256 in NFL and 2,430 in MLB).

The ROIs are identical, but the volume of baseball wagering results in much greater units won. A 2% ROI would yield a profit of +9.72 in MLB and a profit of +1.02 in NFL.

A $500 MLB bettor would make a profit of $4860 if he placed $500 per play ($500 x 9.72 unit). However, a $500 NFL betor would only make $510 ($500x 1.02 unit). Simply put, baseball betting is more profitable than football betting, so learn how to bet on baseball and you might be in for a big surprise!

How to bet on baseball: 10.Manage your bankroll and avoid teasers and parlays

To be successful long-term, money management is a key factor. Sports Insights encourages its members to use a flat-betting strategy: Every play is the exact same, and you only risk one unit (1u), per play. We recommend that you bet between 1% and 5% of your bankroll for each play. If you prefer to be conservative, choose 1% or 2. You can be more aggressive with 4% to 5 percent. 3% is a good middle.

If you have $100 in your bankroll, you can bet $3 per game. You will have ups and downs. However, if you are disciplined about your bankroll management you will be able to keep from losing big during rough times and ensure a positive ROI for the long term.

Parlays should be avoided. The huge payouts lure public bettors and they love the idea that $5 can turn into $100. The truth is that parlays and teasers make a killing because the books can offer unfair odds, disguised by big payouts.

We recommend sticking with individual bets. It is difficult enough to win just one bet. You can’t win more than one bet.

Now you know everything there is to know on how to bet on baseball. As always, remember to bet with your head and not over it!

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